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"May you live in interesting times" 
3rd-Nov-2004 01:32 pm
HALWU is back to 1.25. Oh well; it was a nice thought, but the facts on the ground are telling me I should close this out.

Clearly, Republican control of Everything is just the way the business folks want it. And Kerry conceded, so we're not looking at 2 months of nasty court battles & uncertainty like that which dragged the market into the toilet over the course of Nov-Dec 2000. Normally, November's normally supposed to be a good month --- conventional wisdom is that if you manage to survive October without a crash, you're good for at least another 6 months, right? The economy tends to run a bit stronger during the holiday season, and the stock market anticipates that, etc...

So I wasn't entirely surprised to see that the index futures did show a boost overnight (S&P shot up to 1147; Nasdaq 100 got up to 1525, Dow got to 10200) right about the time the networks were calling Florida for Bush.

But today things are rather odd: Nasdaq100 is back down to 1500 (right about the point where I shorted it --- fortunately, I didn't put on a stop this time). S&P is just kinda wandering around (1140 last I looked, just barely missed blowing out my stop at 1149, so I've still got that position, too). And the Dow has dropped back again (I thought about shorting the Dow, too, but never quite got around to it).

You'd think conditions would be ideal for a rally, but, apparently, nobody's biting. Instead, gold and silver are rallying again.

Is there something wrong with this picture, yet?

Keep in mind that Greenspan, the Treasury folks, and Prince Bandar have been pumping like crazy to keep the economy and the stock market afloat until to the election. I didn't think they'd pull it off, but evidently, they have. They're done now.

And the economy is fucked harder than a porn star. Interest rates have nowhere to go but up, the dollar has nowhere to go but down. Fannie Mae's balance sheet is an accident waiting to happen (one roughly of the magnitude of the S&L disaster of the '80s). Real estate markets are already crumbling in Las Vegas and elsewhere.

Don't get me started on the Iraq situation or where oil is headed.

The orchestra is warming up and the fireworks are about to start.

As Bill Fleckenstein said the other day, "Whoever wins this election is going to wish they hadn't."
There's a whole lot of pain ahead, and the one silver lining from yesterday is that there is no way in hell that the Democratic party will be taking the blame for it.

George Bush, Tom Delay, and the conservative majority have gotten what they wanted.

Now they can choke on it.

2006 is only two years away; it took less time to get rid of Nixon and he actually won by a landslide in '72. Nothing is ever over; life goes on.
3rd-Nov-2004 04:12 pm (UTC)
My biggest fear of running away to Canada or elsewhere is that so much of the world economy relies on our buying stuff from them that I think the U.S. economy is going to bring down others with it.
3rd-Nov-2004 05:13 pm (UTC)
I have no fear of running home to Canada. Trepidation and uncertainty, but no fear.

Canada does trade with Asia and Europe. Things might suck everywhere, but I can deal better with Quebecois separatists than I can with right-wing extremists. I understand Canadians, having lived east and west, in French-speaking and English-speaking parts, but I live among you people for eight years and I understand so little...

The aim is to inhibit or suppress anger and convert it into more constructive behaviour. I know I would be very angry with the person whose paralyzing fear held me back from making constructive, positive choices for my life and those of my loved ones. I would become very sore and bitter. Anger turned inward may cause hypertension, high blood pressure or depression. But I doubt someone with paralyzing fear would give a rat's ass how I felt.

I'd be happier if the people who are currently experiencing anger and sadness would convert those feelings into more constructive energies and causes. I know I have a constructive plan for myself.
4th-Nov-2004 09:18 pm (UTC)
Hey, I want to ask you a tax question! Can I do that?

The email address I usually use for you isn't working because of your b0rken DSL. :-p Can you mail me from somewhere that works? ^_^
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